The impact of climate change in the rest of the world

Climate change is already having an impact on the number of environmental refugees. According to the Tearfund study, there are already an estimated 25 million environmental refugees resulting from changing rain patterns, floods, storms and rising tides and this figure is likely to rise significantly. Recently, there has been an increase in flooding in areas across the world, especially in Asia and China. Whilst some areas of the world see higher amounts of rain, others see the opposite, severe drought. This is because climate change is causing rain patterns to alter. The effects of climate change on nature are felt everywhere. Melting Arctic ice is leaving polar bears without the ice floes they need to hunt for seals and fish. A fifth of the world's coral reefs already suffer from coral "bleaching", which occurs when warm water kills the tiny algae on which the living coral depends for food, energy and colour.

Predicted impacts in Developing Countries

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that "the effects of climate change are expected to be greatest in developing countries in terms of loss of life, and relative effects on investment and economy". Livelihoods built for generations on particular patterns of farming may quickly become impossible. If not addressed, climate change is likely to place an additional 80-120 million people at risk of hunger; 70 to 80 per cent of these will be in Africa¹. In Africa it is predicted that by 2050:

• Land areas may warm by as much as 1.6°C over the Sahara and semi-arid regions of southern Africa. This could mean people having to move from their home due to prolonged drought².
• In southern Africa and parts of the Horn, rainfall will fall by about 10 per cent.
• Sea level will rise by around 25cm, threatening low-lying areas of West Africa and coastal fisheries.
• Climate variability and the frequency and intensity of severe weather events will increase³.

In Latin America and the Caribbean it is predicted thatª:

• Hurricanes and tropical storms will increase in intensity. With 26 tropical storms and 14 hurricanes, the 2005 hurricane season is rated as one of the most active and destructive in history.
• Sea level rise is likely to hit coastal areas, leading to loss of coastal land, infrastructure, and biodiversity, as well as the intrusion of soil-contaminating saltwater. Sixty of Latin America's seventy seven largest cities are located on the coast.
• Warming in high mountain regions is melting glaciers, snow and ice, affecting farming and the availability of water to coastal cities and tourist activities. It is estimated that by 2025 about 70 per cent of the population in South America and Mexico will live in regions with low water supply.

In Asia it is predicted that³:

• Rainfall will become more variable during the Indian summer monsoon. The timing and intensity of rainfall will become more erratic and between seasons;
• Heavy rainfall and tropical cyclone intensity may increase due to disruption of the El Nino cycle and increasing sea surface temperature. A 1°C increase in sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal could increase tropical cyclone intensity by 10%.
• Other extreme events such as heat waves are also likely to increase as the climate becomes unstable through climate change.

The principal consequences of these changes in climate are greater risks to food and water security, and greater health risks, which will affect the poor and vulnerable the most.

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¹ The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

² Africa - Up in Smoke? The Second Report from the Working Group on Climate Change and Development

³ Department for International Development

ª Up in Smoke? - Latin America and the Caribbean: The Third Report from the Working Group on climate Change and Development